Looking at: The 2014 Video Game Awards, predictions

Hey, maybe this time it won't suck

The Video Game Awards are the latest attempt by Gametrailers.com showrunner Geoff Keighley to create a legitimate, be-all end-all award show for video games. This is now the eleventh attempt, and the third iteration of the show which is attempting to distance itself as much as possible from last year's abomination.

To call last year's show a failure is like saying Hitler wasn't a bad dude. There's some truth hidden in there, but everyone's ignoring it because of how awful it was. We had Loiter Squad making really awkward jokes, Joel McHale letting everyone know how stupid it was, and a general feeling of "oh god when will this end". It was awkward and weird, and uncomfortable for everyone. 

So this year they're trying another reboot, sans snarky celebrity host. It's also sans television coverage, since this year it's an online streaming exclusive without any imput from SpikeTV or Viacom. This actually might be the best thing for it, since Keighley has always seemed just a little held back. I have nothing specifically against Geoff Keighley, in fact I kind of like him. In an industry where the quality of journalism is so shitty that we have an entire movement of people trying to tear it down, he at least has some class to him. I'll not say that he's a great journalist, as evidenced be the picture below:

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/erikkain/files/2014/09/doritos.png

GAMES JOURNALISM

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/757/262/9a5.jpg

THERE IS NO GOD

He's trying, and he's been trying, mostly unsuccessfully for years. Maybe 2014 will be his swan song, the year when everything works. Considering how shitty 2014 has been for video games, I doubt it. 

What? Why?

I guess the underlying question is why Keighley and other believe we need an award show. It all comes back to this idea of legitimizing games as an actual media medium. It makes sense if you think about it, almost every other medium has it's own form of awards. Movies have the Oscars, TV has the Emmy's, Literature has a slew of awards, and Journalism has the Pulitzer, a prize no video game journalist will ever win. Games have long struggled to be seen as a legitimate medium, and the idea of a super prestigious awards show would go a long way to helping that. 

Except we kind of don't need it. Video games are only ever about entertainment. That's not to say they can't tell great stories, or contain powerful messages, but regardless of the contents, video games are toys. This is something of a touchy subject, especially given what's happened in the last year, but that's what people seem to forget. Nintendo often takes a lot of criticism for not having that many mature games, or games with deep stories, but I think it's because Nintendo, or at least the people calling the shots, get it. Look at Shigeru Miyamoto, the man is a giant ball of pleasant joy, and it's because he like to make things that are fun. Movies and books can be serious, and can be non-entertaining while still being engaging because they don't require any imput from the person using them. But games aren't like that, they should be enjoyed as toys. 

Regardless, Keighley will press on with his awards show. It airs tonight (5/12/2014) through Twitch, Youtube, and console specific marketplaces. Below are my predictions for the show, along with their probability of happening. I'm no statistician, so these probabilities are largely pulled from my ass.

Predictions:

The Known:

* The premier of Metal Gear Solid is weird, non-nonsensical, and kind of awesome: 67%

* Imagine Dragons is terrible, and kind of awkward: 72%

* Imagine Dragons played Radioactive: 99%

* Bloodbourne is dark, hard to see, looks a lot like Dark Souls: 80%

* The new King's Quest looks dissapointing, is named just King's Quest despite eight previous games: 79%

* The Order: 1886 continues to look really, really awful: 68%

* EA announces a new game, it's a rehash of an old franchise they should've left alone: 78%

* EA's announcement is weird, contains almost no trace of the actual game being announced: 79%

* The whole show feels weirdly PS4 centered, kind of like a pre-show for the Sony Expo tomorrow: 88%

* No Man's Sky footage is amazing, makes people actually want a PS4: 78%

The Unknown:

* Despite saying otherwise, Bethesda announces something: 55%

* Bethesda announces Fallout 4: 24%

* Capcom announces a remastered version of Dragon's Dogma for PS4, X1, and PC: 49%

* Capcom announces a new Devil May Cry, people complain: 51%

* Naughty Dog announces new Crash Bandicoot game: 69%

* Nintendo announces a new Metroid: 20%

* Nintendo announces a new Star Fox: 40%

* Ubisoft announces a sequel, it looks good but will be disappointing: 68%

* The show is actually really good, creates a whole new level of game award shows: 5%

* There's a frank and actual discussion on the deplorable level of video game journalism: 2%

* Everyone ignores how horrid and uninspired video games have gotten, how lazy and disgusting the state of video games journalism is, and how completely deplorable the actions of Kotaku, RockPaperShotgun, IGN, GameTrailers, Polygon, and even Giantbomb are: 98%

* Half Life 3 announced: .03% 

The Awards 

(List taken from Polygon: http://www.polygon.com/2014/11/21/7259309/game-awards-2014-nominees)

GAME OF THE YEAR
Bayonetta 2 (Platinum Games/Nintendo)
Dark Souls 2 (From Software/Bandai Namco Games)
Dragon Age: Inquisition (BioWare/Electronic Arts)
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft (Blizzard Entertainment)
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor (Monolith Productions/Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment)

Prediction: Dragon Age, despite only being out for a few weeks. People complain the show was rigged.

DEVELOPER OF THE YEAR
Blizzard Entertainment
Monolith Productions
Nintendo
Telltale Games
Ubisoft Montreal

Prediction: Any dev except Ubisoft would be fine. If Ubi wins, there will be blood.

BEST INDEPENDENT GAME
Broken Age: Act 1 (Double Fine Productions)
Monument Valley (Ustwo)
Shovel Knight (Yacht Club Games)
Transistor (Supergiant Games)
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter (The Astronauts)

Prediction: It should go to Transistor, Ethan Carter, or Shovel Knight. Broken Age is a broken game, with only half of the product actually released. I have no opinions on Monument Valley.

BEST MOBILE/HANDHELD GAME
Bravely Default (Silicon Studio/Square Enix/Nintendo)
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft (Blizzard Entertainment)
Monument Valley (Ustwo)
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS (Sora Ltd/Bandai Namco Games/Nintendo)
Threes! (Sirvo)

Predictions: If we're looking at sheer game, it should be Bravely Default. However, it's likely to go to HearthStone, because Blizzard.

BEST NARRATIVE
South Park: The Stick of Truth (Obsidian Entertainment/Ubisoft)
The Walking Dead: Season Two (Telltale Games)
The Wolf Among Us (Telltale Games)
Valiant Hearts: The Great War (Ubisoft Montpellier/Ubisoft)
Wolfenstein: The New Order (MachineGames/Bethesda Softworks)

Prediction: Any of these would be great, but Telltale is definitely the front-runner here. I'd personally give it to Walking Dead, as I found it went places other games usually stay far away from. 

BEST SCORE/SOUNDTRACK
Alien: Isolation (Christian Henson, Joe Henson and Alexis Smith/The Creative Assembly)
Child of Light (Coeur de pirate/Ubisoft Montreal)
Destiny (Marty O'Donnell/Bungie)
Sunset Overdrive (Boris Salchow/Insomniac Games)
Transistor (Darren Korb/Supergiant Games)

Predictions: I unfortunately haven't played any of these games, but since Darren Korb did the soundtrack for Bastion, he should get it.

BEST PERFORMANCE
Adam Harrington as Bigby Wolf, The Wolf Among Us (Telltale Games)
Kevin Spacey as Jonathan Irons, Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (Sledgehammer Games/Activision)
Melissa Hutchison as Clementine, The Walking Dead: Season Two (Telltale Games)
Trey Parker as Various Voices, South Park: The Stick of Truth (Obsidian Entertainment/Ubisoft)
Troy Baker as Talion, Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor (Monolith Productions/Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment)

Prediction: I like Troy Baker, but Talion wasn't his best work. It'll likely go to Kevin Spacey, because holy shit Kevin Spacey.

GAMES FOR CHANGE
Never Alone (Upper One Games/E-Line Media)
The Last of Us: Left Behind (Naughty Dog/Sony Computer Entertainment America)
Mountain (David O'Reilly/Double Fine Presents)
This War of Mine (11 bit studios)
Valiant Hearts: The Great War (Ubisoft Montpellier/Ubisoft)

Prediction: If there's any award likely to stir up really stupid controversy, it's this one, especially if it goes to Last of Us. Whoever it goes to, people will complain.

BEST SHOOTER
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (Sledgehammer/Activision)
Destiny (Bungie/Activision)
Far Cry 4 (Ubisoft Montreal/Ubisoft)
Titanfall (Respawn Entertainment/Electronic Arts)
Wolfenstein: The New Order (MachineGames/Bethesda Softworks)

Prediction: Likely to go to COD, and for the first time in a while, it deserves it. Shouldn't go to Far Cry, since it's mostly a rehash of the much better FC3. If it's based on pure originality, then Wolfenstien could be a contender.

BEST ACTION/ADVENTURE
Alien: Isolation (The Creative Assembly/Sega)
Assassin's Creed Unity (Ubisoft Montreal/Ubisoft)
Bayonetta 2 (Platinum Games/Nintendo)
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor (Monolith Productions/Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment)
Sunset Overdrive (Insomniac Games/Microsoft Studios)

Prediction: Definitely shouldn't go to Unity. None of these games are overly original, so I'll say Bayonetta 2 or Shadow of Mordor, since they stood out more then the rest. 

BEST ROLE-PLAYING GAME
Bravely Default (Silicon Studio/Square Enix/Nintendo)
Dark Souls 2 (From Software/Bandai Namco Games)
Divinity: Original Sin (Larian Studios)
Dragon Age: Inquisition (BioWare/Electronic Arts)
South Park: The Stick of Truth (Obsidian Entertainment/Ubisoft)

Prediction: While I like that it's getting a mention, it definitly won't go to Divinity. Likely to go to Dragon Age, but Dark Souls 2 is a contender.

BEST FIGHTING GAME

Killer Instinct: Season 2 (Iron Galaxy Studios/Microsoft Studios)
Persona 4 Arena Ultimax (Arc System Works/Atlus)
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS (Sora Ltd/Bandai Namco Games/Nintendo)
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U (Sora Ltd/Bandai Namco Games/Nintendo)
Ultra Street Fighter 4 (Capcom)

Prediction: I'm not big into fighting games. Give it to Persona, just because that'd be kind of funny.

BEST FAMILY GAME
Disney Infinity 2.0 (Avalanche Software/Disney Interactive)
Fantasia: Music Evolved (Harmonix/Disney Interactive)
Mario Kart 8 (Nintendo EAD/Nintendo)
Skylanders Trap Team (Toys for Bob/Activision)
Tomodachi Life (Nintendo SPD/Nintendo)

Prediction: I'd say Mario Kart, just because it's the only one I've played. Probably should go to Infinity, as I've heard it's pure joy.

BEST SPORTS/RACING GAME
FIFA 15 (EA Canada/EA Sports)
Forza Horizon 2 (Playground Games/Turn 10 Studios/Microsoft Studios)
Mario Kart 8 (Nintendo EAD/Nintendo)
NBA 2K15 (Visual Concepts/2K Sports)
Trials Fusion (RedLynx/Ubisoft)

Prediction: Again, I'd go with Mario Kart. I have heard good things about Trails. FIFA is FIFA. Horizon 2 might be a contender.

BEST ONLINE EXPERIENCE
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (Sledgehammer Games/Activision)
Dark Souls 2 (From Software/Bandai Namco Games)
Destiny (Bungie/Activision)
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft (Blizzard Entertainment)
Titanfall (Respawn Entertainment/Electronic Arts)

Prediction: Probably COD again. Shouldn't be Titanfall, since that's just a ripoff of COD, or destiny, since it's just a ripoff of Borderlands. Dark Souls 2 is great, but won't get it. 

BEST REMASTER
Grand Theft Auto 5 (Rockstar North/Rockstar Games)
Halo: The Master Chief Collection (343 Industries/Microsoft Studios)
Pokémon Omega Ruby/Pokémon Alpha Sapphire (Game Freak/The Pokemon Company/Nintendo)
The Last of Us Remastered (Naughty Dog/Sony Computer Entertainment America)
Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition (Crystal Dynamics/Square Enix)

Prediction: Probably not Tomb Raider or Pokemon. Shouldn't be Halo, since it's still broken. That leave GTA or Last of Us, either would be great.

MOST ANTICIPATED GAME
Batman: Arkham Knight (Rocksteady Studios/Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment)
Bloodborne (From Software/Sony Computer Entertainment America)
Evolve (Turtle Rock Studios/2K Games)
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (CD Projekt Red/Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment)
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End (Naughty Dog/Sony Computer Entertainment America)

Prediction: An award almost as stupid as Best of E3. None of these games are out, so it's pointless to award them. 

ESPORTS PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Martin "Rekkles" Larsson (League of Legends)
Xu "Fy" Linsen (Dota 2)
James "Firebat" Kostesich (Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft)
Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund (Counter-Strike: Global Offensive)
Matt "NaDeSHoT" Haag (Call of Duty)

Prediction: Oh sweet, a bathroom break.

ESPORTS TEAM OF THE YEAR
Samsung White (League of Legends)
Evil Geniuses (Dota 2)
Edward Gaming (League of Legends)
Newbee (Dota 2)
Ninjas in Pajamas (Counter-Strike: Global Offensive)

Prediction: Oh sweet, a bathroom break.

TRENDING GAMER
Evan "Vanoss" Fong
Jeff Gerstmann
PewDiePie
StampyLongHead
TotalBiscuit

Prediction: Sweet jesus not PewDiePie. I'd say Jeff Gerstmann or TotalBiscuit, just because they maintain some sense of professionalism. 

BEST FAN CREATION
"BEST Zelda Rap EVER!!" By Egoraptor
Luigi Death Stare by CZBwoi and Rizupicorr
"Mine the Diamond (Minecraft Song)" by Tobuscus
Minecraft - Titan City by Colonial Puppet
Twitch Plays Pokemon by Anonymous

Prediction: All of these make me ashamed to be a gamer. Give it to Twitch plays Pokemon, since at least that has some scientific merit. 

Like a trainwreck

There's no doubt in my mind tonight's show is going to be awful. It's been eleven years, and they're always awful, why should tonight be any different. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm just jaded. There's always a chance. We'll see. Check back tomorrow for my review of the show.